Risk/reward & break-even win rate calculator

Find out how often a setup must win to be worth taking. Free, private, runs in your browser.

How it works

Reward : risk (R) = |Target − Entry| ÷ |Entry − Stop|.

Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R). Expectancy (in R) = Win rate × R − (1 − Win rate).

Example: risk 5 to make 10 is 2 : 1, so you break even winning 1 ÷ 3 = 33.3% of trades. At 1 : 1 you need 50%.

Learn more

The position sizing formula, with worked examplesThe position sizing formula explained step by step: account risk, stop distance and units to buy, with worked stock and crypto examples, fees, and how leverage fits in.Risk-reward ratio and the win rate you need to break evenHow to calculate risk:reward, the break-even win rate for any ratio, and trade expectancy in R, with worked examples and a table showing why a 40% win rate can be profitable.

FAQ

What is a good risk/reward ratio?

There is no single answer. A high ratio needs fewer wins, a low ratio needs a higher win rate. What matters is positive expectancy over many trades.

Does this include fees?

No. Fees and slippage raise the win rate you need, especially on small targets. Keep that in mind on short-term trades.

What does expectancy in R mean?

It is the average result per trade measured in units of risk. +0.2 R means you make 0.2 times your risk per trade on average.

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